How the Federal Reserve’s Next Move Could Impact the Housing Market
Now that it’s September, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve (the Fed). The overwhelming expectation is that they’ll cut the Federal Funds Rate at their upcoming meeting, driven primarily by recent signs that inflation is cooling, and the job market is slowing down. Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, said:“They’re ready to cut, just as long as we don’t get an inflation surprise between now and September, which we won’t.”But what does this mean for the housing market, and more importantly, for you as a potential homebuyer or seller?Why a Federal Funds Rate Cut MattersThe Federal Funds Rate is one of the key factors that influences mortgage rates – things like the economy, geopolitical uncertainty, and more also have an impact.When the Fed cuts the Federal Funds Rate, it signals what’s happening in the broader economy, and mortgage rates tend to respond. While a single rate cut might not lead to a dramatic drop in mortgage rates, it could contribute to the gradual decline that’s already happening.As Mike Fratantoni, Chief Economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), points out:“Once the Fed kicks off a rate-cutting cycle, we do expect that mortgage rates will move somewhat lower.”And any upcoming Federal Funds Rate cut likely won’t be a one-time event. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:“Generally, the rate-cutting cycle is not one-and-done. Six to eight rounds of rate cuts all through 2025 look likely.”The Projected Impact on Mortgage RatesHere’s what experts in the industry project for mortgage rates through 2025. One contributing factor to this ongoing gradual decline is the anticipated cuts from the Fed. The graph below shows the latest forecasts from Fannie Mae, MBA, NAR, and Wells Fargo (see graph below):So, with recent improvements in inflation and signs of a cooling job market, a Federal Funds Rate cut is likely to lead to a moderate decline in mortgage rates (shown in the dotted lines). Here are two big reasons why that’s good news for both buyers and sellers:1. It Helps Alleviate the Lock-In EffectFor current homeowners, lower mortgage rates could help ease the lock-in effect. That’s where people feel stuck within their current home because today’s rates are higher than what they locked in when they bought their current house.If the fear of losing your low-rate mortgage and facing higher costs has kept you out of the market, a slight reduction in rates could make selling a bit more attractive again. However, this isn’t expected to bring a flood of sellers to the market, as many homeowners may still be cautious about giving up their existing mortgage rate.2. It Should Boost Buyer ActivityFor potential homebuyers, any drop in mortgage rates will provide a more inviting housing market. Lower mortgage rates can reduce the overall cost of homeownership, making it more feasible for you if you’ve been waiting to make a move.What Should You Do?While a Federal Funds Rate cut is not expected to lead to drastically lower mortgage rates, it will likely contribute to the gradual decrease that’s already happening.And while the anticipated rate cut represents a positive shift for the future of the housing market, it’s important to consider your options right now. Jacob Channel, Senior Economist at LendingTree, sums it up well:“Timing the market is basically impossible. If you’re always waiting for perfect market conditions, you’re going to be waiting forever. Buy now only if it’s a good idea for you.”Bottom LineThe expected Federal Funds Rate cut, driven by improving inflation and slower job growth, is likely to have a positive, albeit gradual, impact on mortgage rates. That could help unlock opportunities for you. When you’re ready, connect with a local real estate agent so you’re prepared to take action.
Should You Sell Now? The Lifestyle Factors That Could Tip the Scale
Are you on the fence about whether to sell your house now or hold off? It’s a common dilemma, but here’s a key point to consider: your lifestyle might be the biggest factor in your decision. While financial aspects are important, sometimes the personal motivations for moving are reason enough to make the leap sooner rather than later.An annual report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) offers insight into why homeowners like you chose to sell. All of the top reasons are related to life changes. As the graph below highlights:As the visual shows, the biggest motivators were the desire to be closer to friends or family, outgrowing their current house, or experiencing a significant life change like getting married or having a baby. The need to downsize or relocate for work also made the list.If you, like the homeowners in this report, find yourself needing features, space, or amenities your current home just can’t provide, it may be time to consider talking to a real estate agent about selling your house. Your needs matter. That agent will walk you through your options and what you can expect from today’s market, so you can make a confident decision based on what matters most to you and your loved ones.Your agent will also be able to help you understand how much equity you have and how it can make moving to meet your changing needs that much easier. As Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, explains:“A consideration today's homeowners should review is what their home equity picture looks like. With the typical home listing price up 40% from just five years ago, many home sellers are sitting on a healthy equity cushion. This means they are likely to walk away from a home sale with proceeds that they can use to offset the amount of borrowing needed for their next home purchase.”Bottom LineYour lifestyle needs may be enough to motivate you to make a change. If you want help weighing the pros and cons of selling your house, connect with a local real estate professional today.
Could a 55+ Community Be Right for You?
If you’re thinking about downsizing, you may be hearing about 55+ communities and wondering if they’d be a good fit for you. Here’s some information that could help you make your decision.What Is a 55+ Community?It’s important to note that these communities aren’t just for people who need extra support – they can be pretty vibrant, too. Many people who are downsizing opt for this type of home because they’re looking to be surrounded by people in a similar season of life. U.S. News explains:“The terms ‘55-plus community,’ ‘active adult community,’ ‘lifestyle communities’ and ‘planned communities’ refer to a setting that caters to the needs and preferences of adults over the age of 55. These communities are designed for seniors who are able to care for themselves but may be looking to downsize to a community with others their same age and with similar interests.”Why It’s Worth Considering This Type of Home If that sounds like something that may interest you, here's one thing to consider. You may find you’ve got a growing list of options if you look at this type of community. According to 55places.com, the number of listings tailored for homebuyers in this age group has increased by over 50% compared to last year.And a bigger pool of options could make your move much less stressful because it’s easier to find something that’s specifically designed to meet your needs.Other Benefits of 55+ CommunitiesOn top of that, there are other benefits to seeking out this type of home. An article from 55places.com, highlights just a few:Lower-Maintenance Living: Tired of mowing the lawn or pulling weeds? Many of these communities take care of this for you. So, you can spend more time doing fun things, and less time on maintenance.On-Site Amenities: Some feature lifestyle amenities like a clubhouse, fitness center, and more, so it’s easy to stay active. Plus, others offer media rooms, libraries, spas, arts and craft studios, and more.Like-Minded Neighbors: Additionally, these types of homes usually offer clubs, outings, meet-ups, and more to foster a close-knit community.Accessible Floor Plans: Not to mention, many have first-floor living options, ample storage spaces, and modern floor plans so you can have a home tailored to this phase in your life.Bottom LineIf this sounds appealing to you, reach out to a local real estate agent. They’ll be able to walk you through what’s available in your area and the unique amenities for each community. You may find a 55+ home is exactly what you’ve been searching for.
Milton Knight, CRS
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